The inauguration of Muhammad Morsi in Egypt prompted a quick Israeli response: The Prime Minister rushed to congratulate the newly elected president, expressing hope that the two countries will continue to cooperate on various levels; in Cairo, Israel’s ambassador to Egypt, Yaakov Amitai, met with several top-ranking members of the Muslim Brotherhood, stressing that Jerusalem had no intention to interfere with Egypt’s domestic affairs.
This, however, masked the deep anxieties of the country’s leaders. As the flames of revolution are still raging at Israel’s doorstep, many experts voice their concerns about the impact of those events on the Jewish state.
“Israel will be facing challenges in several spheres,” said Orit Perlov, a researcher who focuses on the Arab states at the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS). “Since the epicenter of the uprisings is usually the capital or the country’s major cities, the periphery is left neglected, creating a void that is easily filled by various terrorist cells,” she continued.
Indeed, after the eruption of the popular protests that toppled the regime of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula turned into a haven for terrorist activity. In May, for example, Egyptian security forces intercepted three trucks carrying more than 40 surface-to-surface missiles, 17 rocket-propelled grenades, several mortar shell launchers, seven assault rifles with 10,000 rounds of ammunition, and surveillance equipment. Other reports indicated that Jihad Islami, a terrorist organization aimed at annihilating Israel, was establishing arms-making and logistical bases in the area, convinced that the long arm of Israel’s Defence Force (IDF) wouldn’t reach them there.
Some militants went as far as stationing long-range rockets in the region (some of which have already been fired into Israel), assuming that Jerusalem would be far less inclined to attack such sites out of concern for bilateral ties with Egypt. Others – reportedly linked to Al-Qaeda – made several attempts to infiltrate the country.
Sinai’s native population – the Bedouin tribes that comprise about 300,000 people out of the local population of 430,000 – add fuel to the fire by smuggling arms, drugs, prostitutes, and African migrants into Israel. They have also been accused of attacking Egypt’s gas pipelines pumping energy into the Jewish state (meeting some 40% of the country’s domestic demand).
All of these developments have been particularly frustrating, given the fact that in the past 30 years the 240km Israel-Sinai border remained mostly unprotected, saving both countries tens of billions of dollars in military expenditures. The situation wasn't ideal under Mubarak though, but the strong fist of the security forces presented a deterrent to those, willing to undermine stability. Now with the regime gone, many terror groups feel free to dictate their own rules.
Addressing the issue -- especially following last August’s terrorist attack that left eight Israelis dead and some 31 others wounded -- Israel decided to construct a sophisticated fence (at a considerable cost) along the entire border. The move did decrease trafficking and illegal immigration but failed to solve the problem of militants shooting into Israel, leading the IDF to beef up its presence in the area.
But apart from the high level of violence that’s been plaguing the area, Perlov said Israel would face other challenges. “An excessive flow of unsupervised weapons is streaming from Iran via Sudan, Libya and the Gaza Strip, while the populist government in Cairo lacks any basic policy to tackle the problem,” she told Israel Today. “This kind of situation bogs down the country’s economic development, which needs stability,” she stressed.
However, some Israeli politicians remain optimistic about the future of Egypt. Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Egypt would probably move towards a Turkish version of Islamic democracy, meaning Cairo would maintain a ‘cold peace’ with Jerusalem. But as tensions escalate across the border, Israel might opt for retaliation, leading to a full-fledged war.
Nevertheless, Perlov said that such a development was highly unlikely. “Egypt cannot afford a military conflict with Israel,” she reasoned. “The country’s government recognizes our superiority in this respect. Besides, they have enough headaches to cope with, including high unemployment, the ailing economy, religious and sectarian strife – to name the major issues,” she concluded.
This, however, masked the deep anxieties of the country’s leaders. As the flames of revolution are still raging at Israel’s doorstep, many experts voice their concerns about the impact of those events on the Jewish state.
“Israel will be facing challenges in several spheres,” said Orit Perlov, a researcher who focuses on the Arab states at the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS). “Since the epicenter of the uprisings is usually the capital or the country’s major cities, the periphery is left neglected, creating a void that is easily filled by various terrorist cells,” she continued.
Indeed, after the eruption of the popular protests that toppled the regime of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula turned into a haven for terrorist activity. In May, for example, Egyptian security forces intercepted three trucks carrying more than 40 surface-to-surface missiles, 17 rocket-propelled grenades, several mortar shell launchers, seven assault rifles with 10,000 rounds of ammunition, and surveillance equipment. Other reports indicated that Jihad Islami, a terrorist organization aimed at annihilating Israel, was establishing arms-making and logistical bases in the area, convinced that the long arm of Israel’s Defence Force (IDF) wouldn’t reach them there.
Some militants went as far as stationing long-range rockets in the region (some of which have already been fired into Israel), assuming that Jerusalem would be far less inclined to attack such sites out of concern for bilateral ties with Egypt. Others – reportedly linked to Al-Qaeda – made several attempts to infiltrate the country.
Sinai’s native population – the Bedouin tribes that comprise about 300,000 people out of the local population of 430,000 – add fuel to the fire by smuggling arms, drugs, prostitutes, and African migrants into Israel. They have also been accused of attacking Egypt’s gas pipelines pumping energy into the Jewish state (meeting some 40% of the country’s domestic demand).
All of these developments have been particularly frustrating, given the fact that in the past 30 years the 240km Israel-Sinai border remained mostly unprotected, saving both countries tens of billions of dollars in military expenditures. The situation wasn't ideal under Mubarak though, but the strong fist of the security forces presented a deterrent to those, willing to undermine stability. Now with the regime gone, many terror groups feel free to dictate their own rules.
Addressing the issue -- especially following last August’s terrorist attack that left eight Israelis dead and some 31 others wounded -- Israel decided to construct a sophisticated fence (at a considerable cost) along the entire border. The move did decrease trafficking and illegal immigration but failed to solve the problem of militants shooting into Israel, leading the IDF to beef up its presence in the area.
But apart from the high level of violence that’s been plaguing the area, Perlov said Israel would face other challenges. “An excessive flow of unsupervised weapons is streaming from Iran via Sudan, Libya and the Gaza Strip, while the populist government in Cairo lacks any basic policy to tackle the problem,” she told Israel Today. “This kind of situation bogs down the country’s economic development, which needs stability,” she stressed.
However, some Israeli politicians remain optimistic about the future of Egypt. Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Egypt would probably move towards a Turkish version of Islamic democracy, meaning Cairo would maintain a ‘cold peace’ with Jerusalem. But as tensions escalate across the border, Israel might opt for retaliation, leading to a full-fledged war.
Nevertheless, Perlov said that such a development was highly unlikely. “Egypt cannot afford a military conflict with Israel,” she reasoned. “The country’s government recognizes our superiority in this respect. Besides, they have enough headaches to cope with, including high unemployment, the ailing economy, religious and sectarian strife – to name the major issues,” she concluded.
The situation is equally bad on the Syrian border with some experts fearing that things will just get worse with Assad’s fall. Syrian's current president has always been a staunch supporter of Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, but he cooperated with Israel when it came to security. Now, however, with Assad's grip on Syria loosening, Israel’s northern front might begin to evolve towards a Sinai-type situation. Just like in Egypt, Syria finds itself flooded with Iranian, Turkish and Saudi weapons reaching the country from Turkey, Iraq and Jordan.
However, Barak sees Assad’s ouster as an opportunity, hoping that it would break the Syrian-Iranian axis and weaken various terror cells operating under those countries’ umbrellas. The only problem is that other – more hostile blocs – can pop up instead. After seizing power in Egypt (to the rejoicing of Hamas), the Muslim Brotherhood might end up ruling Syria as well, forming a poisonous alliance that could be directed against Israel.
But as Russian Institute of Middle Eastern Studies reports, Qatar – the main financier of the Muslim Brotherhood -- promised Jerusalem to tackle the problem by calming the moods of the militants and replacing the Hamas echelon in Gaza with more ‘Israel-friendly’ leaders.
Meanwhile, the Syrian revolution drags on, leaving at least 15 thousand people dead. Tens of thousands have already fled the violence, seeking refuge in neighboring Jordan (estimated 120,000), Lebanon (26,000) and Turkey (30,800); whereas 200,000 others are expected to flood Cyprus.
But when (and if) the Syrian regime finally collapses, the sectarian strife will inevitably escalate, pushing thousands of Alawites -- supporters of Assad that make up some 10-12% of the Syrian population -- to flee for their lives, for fear of retribution by the Sunnis who will take over.
In January, Israel’s Chief of Staff, Benny Ganz, announced the country was preparing to take in some Alawite refugees on the Golan Heights. Israel is already home to a small Alawite community of about 2,200 people that ‘changed hands’ in 1967, when Israel conquered the area. Now, however, the Jewish state is embracing itself for more.
“The question is: what are we going to do with them?” said Christopher, not his real name, a researcher, specializing on the issue of Israel’s refugees. “When we withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, Israel absorbed some 6,000 Lebanese, former soldiers in the South Lebanese Army (SLA) and their families. Over the years, many have left. Only 1,200 of them remained, living dispersed throughout northern Israel,” he continued.
The pundit also stressed that Israel has no clear-cut policy on the issue, with the country’s political elite pretty much at odds with each other. “While Benny Ganz says we will accept some, our Interior Minister, Eli Yishai, claims he won’t allow any. Before letting refugees in, we actually have to sit down and come up with a program that would suit everyone.”
Apparently, the country’s top-brass is also split on how to handle the other consequences of the Arab Spring. “Some prefer a ‘wait-and-see’ policy,” said Perlov. “Others are calling to smash the new regimes in their infancy, while they are still weak, and yet others are urging the government to create new alliances that could counterbalance regimes hostile to Israel,” she pointed out.
The emerging bloc of Israel, Cyprus, Greece, and, potentially, Russia happens to be one such union. Built around the gas exploration project in the eastern Mediterranean, the countries are also united by a variety of common challenges, including the looming threat of militant Islam and the large number of refugees displaced in the region. Apart from that, Netanyahu is reportedly tightening cooperation with sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya, Uganda and the Ivory Coast), which is worried that the rise of Islamists in North Africa will spread south.
“I believe that the best way to solve the current problems is through cooperation,” stressed Perlov. “But unlike Washington, which chooses to hold negotiations with the Muslim Brothers, we should talk to those moderates behind the revolts in the Arab world. Liberals, centrists, minorities – or whoever longs for democratic values,” she told the magazine.
Comprising some 5-10% of Egypt's population, Perlov thinks Israel has now got a unique opportunity to create more channels able to reach the general public. She doesn't believe in simply increasing military presence on the borders, building barricades and barbed wire fences, completing minefields and deep ditches. Instead -- says the researcher -- Israel should lead a dialogue with its neighbors, spread the word, make a positive change. “We could cooperate on the security level by creating a special body that would regulate arms flows; we could bolster our economic ties by creating a free market that would encourage the development of the middle class – the backbone of any economy. When those people start leading decent lives, only then we will have societies that won’t be pinning the blame on Israel,” she summed up.
However, Barak sees Assad’s ouster as an opportunity, hoping that it would break the Syrian-Iranian axis and weaken various terror cells operating under those countries’ umbrellas. The only problem is that other – more hostile blocs – can pop up instead. After seizing power in Egypt (to the rejoicing of Hamas), the Muslim Brotherhood might end up ruling Syria as well, forming a poisonous alliance that could be directed against Israel.
But as Russian Institute of Middle Eastern Studies reports, Qatar – the main financier of the Muslim Brotherhood -- promised Jerusalem to tackle the problem by calming the moods of the militants and replacing the Hamas echelon in Gaza with more ‘Israel-friendly’ leaders.
Meanwhile, the Syrian revolution drags on, leaving at least 15 thousand people dead. Tens of thousands have already fled the violence, seeking refuge in neighboring Jordan (estimated 120,000), Lebanon (26,000) and Turkey (30,800); whereas 200,000 others are expected to flood Cyprus.
But when (and if) the Syrian regime finally collapses, the sectarian strife will inevitably escalate, pushing thousands of Alawites -- supporters of Assad that make up some 10-12% of the Syrian population -- to flee for their lives, for fear of retribution by the Sunnis who will take over.
In January, Israel’s Chief of Staff, Benny Ganz, announced the country was preparing to take in some Alawite refugees on the Golan Heights. Israel is already home to a small Alawite community of about 2,200 people that ‘changed hands’ in 1967, when Israel conquered the area. Now, however, the Jewish state is embracing itself for more.
“The question is: what are we going to do with them?” said Christopher, not his real name, a researcher, specializing on the issue of Israel’s refugees. “When we withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, Israel absorbed some 6,000 Lebanese, former soldiers in the South Lebanese Army (SLA) and their families. Over the years, many have left. Only 1,200 of them remained, living dispersed throughout northern Israel,” he continued.
The pundit also stressed that Israel has no clear-cut policy on the issue, with the country’s political elite pretty much at odds with each other. “While Benny Ganz says we will accept some, our Interior Minister, Eli Yishai, claims he won’t allow any. Before letting refugees in, we actually have to sit down and come up with a program that would suit everyone.”
Apparently, the country’s top-brass is also split on how to handle the other consequences of the Arab Spring. “Some prefer a ‘wait-and-see’ policy,” said Perlov. “Others are calling to smash the new regimes in their infancy, while they are still weak, and yet others are urging the government to create new alliances that could counterbalance regimes hostile to Israel,” she pointed out.
The emerging bloc of Israel, Cyprus, Greece, and, potentially, Russia happens to be one such union. Built around the gas exploration project in the eastern Mediterranean, the countries are also united by a variety of common challenges, including the looming threat of militant Islam and the large number of refugees displaced in the region. Apart from that, Netanyahu is reportedly tightening cooperation with sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya, Uganda and the Ivory Coast), which is worried that the rise of Islamists in North Africa will spread south.
“I believe that the best way to solve the current problems is through cooperation,” stressed Perlov. “But unlike Washington, which chooses to hold negotiations with the Muslim Brothers, we should talk to those moderates behind the revolts in the Arab world. Liberals, centrists, minorities – or whoever longs for democratic values,” she told the magazine.
Comprising some 5-10% of Egypt's population, Perlov thinks Israel has now got a unique opportunity to create more channels able to reach the general public. She doesn't believe in simply increasing military presence on the borders, building barricades and barbed wire fences, completing minefields and deep ditches. Instead -- says the researcher -- Israel should lead a dialogue with its neighbors, spread the word, make a positive change. “We could cooperate on the security level by creating a special body that would regulate arms flows; we could bolster our economic ties by creating a free market that would encourage the development of the middle class – the backbone of any economy. When those people start leading decent lives, only then we will have societies that won’t be pinning the blame on Israel,” she summed up.
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